People keep asking me this and I’m tired of it. I can’t see into the future but let me just say my opinion here, so people can stop asking me. No, I don’t think there will be a US or Israeli attack on Iran. No, the plan rather is to increase pressure on Iran in the hopes of stirring domestic subversion which lead to government crackdowns that will lead to more subversion etc. until there is a crisis point and yes, even outright civil war. Look at Syria — that’s the plan for Iran. Not direct military attacks.
The goal of all the hype in the media about the “threat” from Iran etc.is really 1– to sell papers, and 2– to make it politically harder for any US administration to reach out to Iran in the meantime.
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You’re wrong.
Basically your concept is one held by some people. I call it the “slo-mo regime change” plan. Build up a “crisis” atmosphere so you can get maximum sanctions, then wait for the regime to collapse.
The problem with that is 1) Iran survived US sanctions for thirty years when its oil wasn’t priced as high as it is now, and 2) a “crisis” atmosphere has a “shelf life”. The longer Iran continues to enrich uranium without making a bomb (and they won’t because they really do not want one), eventually it will become apparent that the entire “nuclear weapons program” deal was a scam on a par with the Iraq “WMD” issue (which it is since Iran has no nuclear weapons program, never has and never will.) And at least half of Iran’s major oil customers will continue to buy Iranian oil. The Saudis can’t pump enough to satisfy everyone. So the regime will stay intact and the sanctions won’t work. Even most of the US administration already admits that and they knew it before they imposed the sanctions.
As for Syria, the Libya model will be applied there, but it cannot be applied to Iran because Iran doesn’t have the kind of ethnic divisions that can be easily pried apart to start a civil war. The 2009 Iran election demonstrations were a tempest in a teapot and any repeat this year will still be unable to fracture the basic cohesion of the Republic.
And Syria will be bombed by the US and NATO just as Libya was. Forget all the nonsense about how there can’t be a UN Resolution because of Russian/Chinese vetos, or the lack of cohesion in the Syrian insurgency, yada, yada. None of that matters.
What matters is that Israel will not attack Iran until Syria’s missiles and Hizballah’s missiles are taken out of the equation. Israel tried that in 2006 and failed. The only way to do it is to attack Hizballah in Lebanon both in Southern Lebanon (as in 2006) AND in the Bekaa Valley. The only way to do that is to cut into Syrian territory then cut left into the Bekaa Valley on Hizballah’s flank. This requires Israel engaging Syrian military forces. Israel could do that but it would leave them with Hizballah guerrillas in front and Syrian guerrillas in the rear — no good.
BUT if Syria were ALREADY under air bombardment by US and NATO forces keeping the Syrian military pinned down, THEN Israel could make a move.
That is the plan. You’ll see it happen this year, probably before or during summer. Once Syria and Hizballah are too weakened to be effective actors in an Iran war, and once the oil export sanctions have proven ineffective in making Iran suspend enrichment, starting next year there will be a push for a international naval BLOCKADE of Iran’s oil exports. That is an act of war and war will soon follow.
This is the plan. It’s locked in and being followed. Drop by http://www.raceforiran.com and see why I think so in more detail.