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Sign # 45623 that Israel will not Attack Iran

Via Haaretz:

An Israeli strike against Iran would have “dis­as­trous” con­se­quences, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying on Saturday, adding the world remains silent on Israel’s reported nuclear armament while threat­en­ing Iran over its peaceful program.

The comments, made to reporters while making the journey back from an official visit to Iran, came after on Wednesday the Turkish PM said that “no one has the right to impose anything on anyone with regards to nuclear energy, provided that it is for peaceful purposes.”

The always-impending Israeli/American “attack” on Iran both isn’t happening and is already happening, and that is its eternal utility.

Since it’s not happening, statesmen like Erdogan can keep welding together their hegemony with nation­al­ist anti-imperialist sentiment by appearing to defy imperial policy on Iran. In Iran proper, a country scared for its survival is one in which it citizens are less likely to engage in labor mobi­liza­tion or agitate for more democracy. In America, Obama can appear to be fending off the Israel lobby even while putting in place sanctions intended to cut Iran off from the world. And in Europe, the lead­er­ship of the EU states, unwilling to provide anything for their citizenry eco­nom­i­cally, can put in place sanctions slowly while meanwhile placating their pop­u­la­tions with the fact that there’s no war yet.

But then there is the fact that the war has already started: the US has set up a system of sanctions against countries which buy Iranian oil, and has used this system to get 10 European Union countries, as well as Japan, to cut their oil purchases from Iran. For that reason, they will not be sanc­tioned. Other countries have 3 months before sanctions set in. China, India, Turkey, South Africa, and South Korea are among the major pur­chasers of Iranian oil. Erdogan’s posturing may be an attempt to secure the domestic political space to reduce Turkish oil imports from Iran, while South African oil imports from Iran shot up in February while China cat­e­gor­i­cally rejects US pressure or influence on its oil sourcing.

When someone discusses whether or not Obama or Netanyahu will attack Iran, two things always should be kept in mind: there is next to no chance that an Israeli leader will do anything without an implied American green light, and America is already attacking Iran, and the currently unmeetable challenge is to get it to stop doing so.

[h/t Yoshie for sources]

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2 comments to Sign # 45623 that Israel will not Attack Iran

  • Timothy Ray

    When will Uncle Sam cease indulging and enabling the ultra-violent behavior patterns of its protege, which for many years has appeared to be totally beyond reha­bil­i­ta­tion? The USA should be exer­cis­ing strong lead­er­ship by notifying Israel that all financial and military aid and coop­er­a­tion are totally suspended until Israel withdraws to its pre-’67 borders and sets the essential example of nuclear dis­ar­ma­ment, without which the Middle East will never been a safe neigh­bor­hood for anyone.

  • seadragonconquerer

    Your analysis is closely argued. However, Netanyahu detests Obama and fears Iran, both — from a Zionist viewpoint — quite rea­son­ably. If Obama gets a 2nd term, a he will turn HardLeft and make life even more difficult for Israel; Romney, on the other hand, is encap­su­lated by neo-con advisors. So Israel will certainly attack Iran sometime before the November U.S. elections; I’d guessti­mate c. late August/early September…sufficient lead time to spike and maintain oil prices high enough/long enough to bring down the Obama regime. In fact, Obama knows that the IranWar is inevitable and proximate: minesweep­ers are being shipped to the zone of oper­a­tions as I write this. That is the Sign.

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