Israel's leadership is astoundingly stupid. Marinated in racism, the leaders and the social forces that stand behind them are certain that Israel has aggression rights. True, but aggression rights within reason. This, they don't get, although you can almost forgive them--American Zionists reliably support them even when they attack American warships. But American Zionists don't control the world, and American Zionists don't speak for the Empire. They can't distribute aggression rights willy-nilly, and they can't distribute them to be used against other powerful countries, without inciting a backlash.
So what is new about the attack on the Mavi Marmara? Simple. Netanyahu/Lieberman/Barak are too dumb to know when they are picking a fight with the wrong enemy—in this case, Turkey, a significant American ally in the Mediterranean, and a major (former?) Israeli ally and trading partner, one with political leaders who are partially responsive to popular discontent and popular mobilization (clearly, Israel is very used to dealing with broken democracies). Erdogan would have broken military ties by now but he is scared of a coup d’état. He may not be scared for long. Or his fear may not be relevant. As Al Jazeera reports, there is in turkey "The danger that political decisions may well be slipping from government hands." Israel is making more enemies that it can deal with, and against cynics who will say, “Oh, well, Obama won’t stand up to them, nothing will change,” Palestinian solidarity movements are forcing their governments into line with their demands, albeit slowly, haphazardly, with reversals along the way.
Erdogan said yesterday that Israel better “check itself” before it loses its “best friend in the region.” Swedish dockworkers will boycott Israeli goods for a week. Norway’s military has canceled a seminar in which an IDF officer was going to participate. There are 20,000 in the streets in France now. There will soon be more. Israel cannot afford to offend the populations of Western nation-states with major economies and diplomatic clout. Egypt has opened the Rafah checkpoint. With enough pressure, the Mubarak government will keep it open, at least partially, not least so long as a non-Arab Muslim nation is seen to be doing so much for the Palestinians, and so long as Egyptians are in the streets, mobilizing politically in the thousands, in far bigger numbers for Palestine than I saw when I was there. "We're reaching the endgame," said Mazin Qumsiyeh, before the latest hijackings and murders. Israel is force-growing the historical process that will lead to its replacement with something much better. The best propaganda against Israel is the truth of Israel and its actions. That propaganda came dearly on the Mavi Marmara, and cheaper on the Rachel Corrie. Dominoes are falling. The US will be the last one to fall, for sure, but we will knock it over. So thank you Israel! You do our work for us.
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Hi Max! Please, what do you think about this article ? http://www.zcommunications.org/post-flotilla-ties...
Salam
Yann–
I asked a friend who knows a lot more about this what he thought. here is his response:
““A lot of these critiques don’t acknowledge the fundamental shift that is going on in Turkey to date. The military and the traditional elite who are responsible for so many of the wrongs listed (and they exist) are being shifted aside by AKP and the new Islamist business class they represent. While there are problems with AKP’s social program and economic policies (especially this), Erdogan and his people are moving the country away from the grip of the “deep state” and that is nothing but positive. Far too many Turks were arrested, tortured and executed during the military’s period of dominance, including some family friends. It’s also important to note the writer of the article is Armenian, and may have some deep-seeded — and just — reasons for distrusting the Turkish government. It doesn’t mean that Turkey isn’t furious at Israel for the events of the past few years. He’s also not mentioning Turkey’s recent approaches to Iran and Russia. They’re moving beyond the traditional US-Israel power alliance and looking for a new place for the country in the world, one where Turkey has more agency. AKP knows they’re not getting into Europe any time soon. And frankly, the country doesn’t need the EU. “”
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I’m by now means an authority, but I doubt that Erdogan is afraid of a coup. My guess is that he has skilled manuevered Israel and its allies into the Turkish military into this position, a position whereby Israel will enable him to do something that he has always wanted, to permanently destroy the ability of the Turkish military to dictate to the rest of Turkish society. But, it’s just a guess. I don’t see him supporting the aid convoys to Gaza unless he had set the stage for it pretty carefully.
i hope and think you are right on this. scared was probably the wrong word; wary would have been better. coup d’etat are unpredictable though; sometimes they work just by luck, or fail the same way.
Great post, Max. I think your analysis is right on here.
Thank you very much Max!
Salam
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