Climate Change as a War on Development? Yup

A clunky rewording of Joan Robinson's quip that the "United States crusade against Communism is a campaign against development," no doubt, but the latest non-sense to emerge from the Senate planning-chamber for class war is a fucking doozy. The bill calls for 20 percent emissions reductions from 2005 levels by 2020, in blazingly sharp contrast to the 17 percent emissions from 2005 levels called for by the House of Representatives. "Called for" is a key phrase. It's unlikely that net emissions reductions will actually reach 17 percent due to the eidolons known as "offsets." No one passed Kerry and Boxer the latest compendium summary from the UN, have they? Doubt it. From the Environmental Program [bear me with while I reword this in English and then explain the colossally irresponsible stupidity and short-sightedness of the Boxer-Kerry proposal, which I haven't read]:

With estimations of 1-5 degrees Celsius as the range of GMT increase over 1750 levels as the threshold for tipping elements and 0-5 degrees Celsius over 1990 levels as reasons for concern, some researchers are realizing that we have already committed ourselves to significant environmental changes (Lenton et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2009, Ramanathan and Feng 2008). The observed increase in GHG concentration since 1750 has most likely committed the world to a warming of 1.4-4.3 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial surface temperatures. The equilibrium warming above pre-industrial temperatures that the world will observe is 2.4 degrees Celsius—even if GHG concentrations had been fixed at their 2005 concentration levels and without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols.

English: we are already committed to severe warming, well  beyond the levels calculated to produce calamity in much of the world.

The range of 1.4 to 4.3 degrees Celsius in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1-3 degrees Celsius for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer Arctic sea ice, Himalayan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet (Ramanathan and Feng 2008). Researchers suggest that 0.6 degrees Celsius of the warming we committed to before 2005 has been realized so far. Most of the rest of the 1.6 degrees Celsius total we have committed to will develop in the next 50 years and on through the 21st century. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius (Ramanathan and Feng 2008).

English again: no mitigation strategies can stop warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius. To lapse further into the vernacular: we're fucked. [I take issue with this notion of "committed warning," in a way, but hold on]. With such emissions already built-into the system, Sens. Boxer and Kerry want to start a trade war with China and India, by seeking "robust border measures" against countries that don't produce cuts. As I've harped on, and on, and on, China and India will not--shouldn't have to cut--their emissions until a dyad of principles is agreed to: the Right to Development, and Historical and Per-Capita Emissions Rights. The first principle, self-explanatory, the latter meaning that the West has already dumped far more CO2 into the global commons than it had a right to, and must not only cease immediately but pay for the excess CO2 that it off-loaded as it burned cheap fossil fuels to aid it develop.

Meanwhile our Senators want to pursue a trade war. Makes a surreal sort of sense--what better way to continue the war against Communism née development than to pursue a war against Climate née development? Meanwhile, developing countries call for a 25 to 40 percent cut, as does Beijing [alacritously rejected by the US envoy, oddly named Todd Stern, three months ago] and the American right, having forfeited its claim to rationality some aeons ago, will doubtless contest even the pathetic measures called for in the Boxer-Kerry proposal. What glittering times, hmm?

Technorati Tags: class war, climate change, ecology, global warming, Obama

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